Reuters
Rachel Bucchino, National Interest: Is Joe Biden Really Ahead in the Polls?
The margin between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is also narrower across the fifteen battleground states, with Biden having 49 percent of support, while Trump holds 48 percent. But which poll can you trust?
Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump has tightened, according to a new poll, just after the former vice president announced Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) as his running mate last week.
In a CNN poll conducted by SSRS, 50 percent of registered voters support the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46 percent back Trump-Pence—a gap that stands right at the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Compared to June, poll voters who have gravitated towards the Trump-Pence ticket are men, those between the ages of thirty-five and sixty-four and independents.
The margin between Biden and Trump is also narrower across the fifteen battleground states, with Biden having 49 percent of support, while Trump holds 48 percent.
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WNU Editor: The above author does not point out how Republicans are under-sampled in these polls as I had explained here .... CNN Poll: In 15 Crucial Battleground States Biden Has A 1-Point Lead Over Trump At 49%-48%. But the above post is correct about this ....
.... Pew Research Center also added “the real margin of error is often about double the one reported” as “there are three other, equally important sources of error in polling: nonresponse, coverage error (where not all the target population has a chance of being sampled) and mismeasurement.”
What's my read of these polls. We are repeating the 2016 US Presidential when it comes to polls. The only difference now is that they are using a smaller Republican sample. My gut is also telling me that a lot of people do not want to tell strangers (i.e. pollsters) on who they are going to vote this year. And considering the political climate that is out there right now. Who would blame them.
