J. Michael Cole, The National Interest: A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan: What Happens? Who Wins?
We take a look.
A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan: What Happens? Who Wins?
Key point: "In the end, absent a U.S. and Japanese commitment to intervene in the early stages of an attempted PLA invasion of Taiwan, there is only a slim likelihood that the Taiwanese military would be able to “defeat” its opponent in the conventional sense of the term."
A consensus seems to have developed among a large number of defense analysts in recent years arguing that despite the balance of power having shifted in China’s favor, Beijing has no intention to use its military to invade Taiwan and thus resolve the Taiwan “question” once and for all. Doing so would be too costly, some argue, while others contend that Beijing can accomplish unification by creating enough economic dependence and incentives to convince Taiwanese over time of the “inevitability” of a “reunited” China.
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WNU Editor: There is no guarantee that China will win. There is a precedent of a smaller power facing China and winning on the battlefield, and that occurred in the Sino-Vietnamese war in 1979.
