* Democrat Joe Biden came into the first debate ahead of President Trump in the national polls.
* The first scientific polls to ask who won the debate Tuesday night show Biden coming out on top.
* A CNBC/Change Research poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday found 53% of likely voters nationwide said Biden did a better job in the debate, compared with 29% for Trump.
Democrat Joe Biden came into the first debate ahead of President Donald Trump in the national polls. If voter reactions to the first debate are any indication, Biden is likely to keep a hold on the lead after the face-off, too.
Here’s what some of the national polling trackers said Thursday morning:
* The NBC News national polling average had Biden up 7.9 points over Trump. That figure is based on an unweighted average of the 10 most recent reliable public opinion polls.
* The RealClearPolitics general election polling average showed Biden with a 6.6-point lead over Trump.
* FiveThirtyEight’s national polling tracker gave Biden a 7.6-point advantage. Three polls asking who won Tuesday night’s debate show Biden coming out on top – though respondents, along with most commentators and even the moderator himself, gave dismal reviews to the contest itself, which appears to have changed few minds.
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WNU Editor: The pollsters who said that President Trump was going to lose in a landslide in 2016 are the same pollsters who are predicting the same thing this year, only that he will lose in an even bigger landslide than what they were predicting in 2016. And when I look at the polls that were accurate in 2016, like Rasmussen, they are giving a different picture. They are saying that President Trump's approval numbers are the same as President Obama's were in 2016 if not better ... Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen). People are not going to vote out a President that they approve. But most polls are predicting a landslide defeat for President Trump. So who is right?
I know that almost half the country hates President Trump. Their focus is always on President Trump, and who the Democrat candidate is and his policies are for many of these Democrat voters and never-Trumpers not important. What is important for them is to see President Trump gone. That is why I expect most of these voters will to go to the polls on election day. Their hatred towards President Trump is personal for them, and as I have learned recently from reading their Tweets and social media accounts, their contempt for the President is off the scale. On the flip side less than half of the country strongly support President Trump. Maybe their numbers are less than those who hate the President, but their support of the President is very real, and nothing will change their mind. Bottom line. They are going to vote in numbers we have never seen before for a Republican candidate. As for the remaining electorate .... many who view themselves as independent. I see these people staying home. None of the candidates appeal to them, and they have zero enthusiasm to go and vote.
Another group that I always look at during a US election cycle is the voting behavior among non-white voters. President Trump polled poorly among Blacks and Hispanics in 2016. But in this election cycle my American Black and Hispanic readers are telling me that President Trump is going to do well. His outreach to the Black and Hispanic community has resonated and they predict that President will get about 20% of the Black vote, and about 45% of the Hispanic vote. I am skeptical of these opinions. Blacks always vote enmasse for Democrats. And Hispanics are leery of President Trump's border pronouncements. But I was surprised by this poll .... Spanish Speaking Viewers Of Telemundo By A Margin Of 2 To 1 Say President Trump Won Tonight's Presidential Debate. And then I was surprised by this .... BET founder suggests he's voting against Biden: 'I will take the devil I know over the devil I don't know' (FOX News). We shall know for sure in 5 weeks, but making promises like this one do have an impact .... President Trump Unveils $500 Billion Economic Plan For Black Americans And Will Designate The KKK And Antifa As "Terrorist Organizations". Also Promised To Make Juneteenth A Federal Holiday (September 25, 2020).
The last factor that I look at is enthusiasm. On this metric President Trump beats everyone hands down. Wherever he goes tens of thousands attend his allies, and a good number of them are not even Republican. The energy and excitement is there. I have never seen anything like this. This is in complete contrast to what is happening on the other side. The rallies for former Vice-President Biden are non-existent. There is no base of support. The passion is not there. That tells me that his supporters are not enthusiastic of the former Vice-President and his policies. They will vote for him, but the reason why is because of President Trump, not because of the former Vice-President. So what I think will finally decide this election will come down to how many of Biden's voters will stay home, and how many will go out and vote for him. That is an answer that I do not know. But if 5% of those who say to the pollsters that they will vote for Biden but actually stay home .... President Trump will be re-elected. I think the Democrats know this. That is why the media went crazy over labelling President Trump a white supremist and worse today. They need to motivate that part of their base that may not like the President, but are not visceral about it. But to keep that level of hate at such an intensity for any period of time is hard. I do not know if the Democrats can pull it off. All that I can say is that for a political party that is suppose to be way ahead of the polls, they are certainly not acting the part.
Update: I forgot to mention this .... Biden Breaks Fundraising Record Again, Buoyed By Debate (Bloomberg). Hillary Clinton outspent Trump two to one in 2016. It looks like Biden is going to out-spend Trump four to one in this cycle. But I do not think the regular rules of politics and running a campaign work here. Everyone I know in the US has already made up their mind on who they are going to vote for President. They are not going to change their minds because of 24/7 ads. It may actually turn them off. But Republicans do have to worry. This spending may have a very real impact on close Congressional, Senate, and Governor races.
