May 9 is Victory Day in Russia, commemorating the Nazi surrender in the Great Patriotic War (known elsewhere as World War II). This year, Columbia and New York Universities marked the occasion by hosting a rollicking professorial debate on “The New U.S.-Russian Cold War: Who is to Blame?”
The event title – not to mention the proceedings themselves – encapsulated some of the most popular themes of today’s rejuvenated Western Kremlinology. The rather small-ball question of whether to label current U.S.-Russia relations a “new Cold War” has engaged a surprisingly august list of foreign policy intelligentsia, both in favor and opposed. The more portentous question of who is to blame (“Kto Vinovat?”) defines a more significant fault line among Western policymakers and analysts. Is the sorry state of affairs mainly a result of Vladimir Putin’s thuggery and intransigence? Or of America’s unique blend of missionary liberalism and obliviousness to other states’ national interests?
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WNU Editor: A neat summary on what is the current state of U.S. - Russian relations. What's my take .... no one lost Russia. But if the Ukraine crisis is solved much of the current tensions between Russia and the West would dissipate. How to solve the Ukraine crisis .... there is a need for a poltitcal agreement between the Ukraine government and the Russian minority that lives within its borders to be undertaken. Preferably establishing a Federal type of state (like Canada's) where the regions/provinces will have the authority to handle language and cultural responsibilities as well as some responsibility on economic affairs. This is what the separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine want, and Moscow has also greenlighted its support. Unfortunately .... the Poroshenko government has torpedoed this proposal, prefering the military option instead. As for Crimea. As much as the Ukraine government wants it back, it is not going to happen. The bridge between Kiev and the Russian majority in Crimea got burned down during the revolution in 2014 .... and with the exception of the Tartars and some who are still loyal to Ukraine, there is no support among the majority (I would put it around 90%) in Crimea to return to Ukraine. I should also add that any attempt to force it back will result in a war that would make the current war in eastern Ukraine small in comparison. My prediction .... one day there will be a resolution to the Uraine crisis, and in turn an improvement in Russia's relations with the West. But that will only happen when Poroshenko is ousted in the next election (that will happen next year), and when Putin leaves in 2024.
