Image Courtesy: RepulicTV
Pakistan is preparing for general elections, which ironically are turning out to be ‘Generals’ Elections’. Nawaz Sharif, who has been disqualified by judiciary in collusion with ISI, on specious grounds of not being ‘sadiq’ (truthful) and ‘Amin’ (honest) has labelled his detractors as ‘umpires’ and ‘Khalai-Mahalook’ (aliens). Army generals are setting the stage for elections by culling uncomfortable elements.
The process was initiated by Gen Raheel Sharif, who decided to render Altaf Hussain irrelevant in Mohajir politics. He engineered a split in Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), powerful regional party in Sind and Karachi. Farooq Sattar, was dramatically rescued by the Rangers from abductors and catapulted to helm in MQM with Altaf left holding a rump in exile. Gen Bajwa followed it up by arranging an officially sponsored merger of MQM with Pak Sarzameen Party.
Gen Bajwa initially hailed as apolitical general has proved to be committed proponent of deep state. He surprised seasoned observers by midwifing talks with Tehreek-e-Labaik Ya Rasool Allah (TLYRA) goons, who had taken over roads leading to capital for three weeks, forcing the change in oath for parliamentarians. Party formed in the wake of hanging of Mumtaz Qadri, assassin of governor Salman Taseer, runs on fuel of competitive religious extremism and questionable interpretation of blasphemy. Why would an army known for its brutal tactics in Karachi and Swat adopt a kid glove approach with known rabble rousers? Was this another foray into marginalizing Nawaz, even by propping dangerous dispensation?
It is apparent that the establishment has not learnt any lessons from huge costs that nation bears by mollycoddling such snakes. Army chief has promulgated the famous ‘Bajwa doctrine’, partly to assuage ruffled feathers of Western powers, who have put Pakistan on terror watch list.
More ominously, he chose to question, decade-old 18th Amendment to Constitution, which devolves additional powers to provinces. This enabling provision strengthens federalism and is necessary for balancing disparate sub-nationalisms of Balochs, Pushtuns, Sindhis, Kashmiris, Baltis, besides Punjabis. Protests and cries of ‘Da Sanga Azadi Da’- “what sort of freedom is this?” by Pashtun Tahafuz (protection) Movement bring back memories of ‘Joy Bangla’, army repression and refusal to share power with Bengalis.
Ishrat Hussain, former Governor of State Bank of Pakistan in his recent book, ‘Governing the Ungovernable’ has flagged the Garrison State Syndrome and nexus between the military and corporates as two biggest stumbling blocks. The private ‘Khakhi wealth’ approximates 25 billion dollars, concurrently army continues to splurge, defying international bench mark of 3% of GDP.
Pakistan, which in 90s seemed to be out performing India, now totters towards an imminent IMF bailout and is rapidly becoming Chinese dependency. Semantics of failed or failing state apart, situation in Pakistan is indeed critical.
In this chaos, Pak army, the institution that should be held accountable, surprisingly retains highest approval rating of 76% and burgeoning wealth. This despite losing Bangladesh and surrender of 93,000 soldiers. Repeated misadventures in 1947, 1965 and Kargil seem to have only increased its TRP.
The obvious reason is crafty manoeuvre of Zia-ul-Haq making the army self-appointed guardians of ideological frontiers. It has also retained right to interfere in internal affairs with unique law of necessity, which allows it to impose martial law at will. Current score card reads four times including constitutional coup in 1953, totaling 38 years out of 71 years of existence. More importantly, it retains a veto in all critical affairs like nuclear weapons, defence, relations with neighbours and even overseeing elections.
Ideological frontiers is a very questionable and dangerous concept for an ideology that promotes Caliphate (junking Westphalian model), Fasad (mischievously referred to as Jehad) and terror as legitimate instrument of war. Hamid Gul generation served American purpose but continues to manifest through Lt Gen Shahid Gul, who recently died fighting for ISIS in Syria. Long years of responsibility (CGS and DGMO) and professional education in USA could not moderate this general, rabid tendency at lower ranks is too scary to even contemplate.
Former chiefs, Aslam Beg and Musharaff are already facing court monitored actions. Mercenary skills find ready takers with Gen Raheel Sharif heading Sunni coalition also referred to as Islamic Military Alliance and reports of deployment of a beefed up composite brigade in Saudi Arabia besides troops protecting the royal family. Training expertise of retirees is being misused by extremists like Taliban and Daesh, while ISI continues to deploy them as strategic assets.
The idea, ‘prima-facie’ may appear utopian but Pakistan Army definitely needs externally monitored structured correctives. UN currently runs security sector reforms programmes in more than 15 countries, mostly in Africa. Reforms were earlier implemented in Nepal, Iraq, CAR and Afghanistan also.
Support of China will be a pre-requisite and example of President Xi’s successful reforms to rein in PLA, concerns on Xinjiang and CPEC may help.
Most Pakistani generals have properties, interests and relatives abroad and publishing of their assets will be enough to show them ‘sadiq’ and ‘amin’ mirror, after all what applies to politicians is equally applicable to real rulers.
Macro reforms should address ideological baggage, commit armed forces to constitutional limits and privatise foundations like Fauji, Shaheen and Bahria. Policing, internal security, border guarding and army responsibilities need to be separated. An army that derails democracy, development and keeps neighbourhood in a state of perpetual turmoil is indeed fit case for corrective surgery.