The Heart of Asia and other Dialogue processes in both limited and wider formats seem to yield little result as far as reconciliation is concerned.
The back to back terror strikes in Afghanistan amid reports of Taliban influence over 70 per cent part of the land locked country could have major security implications for India. Attack against Indian assets and India funded projects in Afghanistan cannot be ruled out as the year progresses as rockets have often been landing closer to the Indian Embassy complex in Kabul.
The lack of visible success by US forces notwithstanding Trumps announcement to maintain troops has further emboldened Taliban. The Pakistan Army under pressure from US President Donald Trump appears to have allegedly turned on the heat on USA in Afghanistan through their proxies. In the words of former Afghan President Hamid Karzai the US may like to reconsider supporting warlords across Afghanistan. Instead strengthening capacity of Kabul could be a better strategy to fight Taliban and ISIS.
India may now need effective regional approach strategy involving Afghanistans neighbours -- Iran and Central Asian countries besides Russia to safeguard its interests even as it continues to closely coordinate with USA on the Afghan situation. The visit of President of Iran in the later part of February -- first head of state visit from Tehran to India since 2008 -1 provides the Modi government an opportunity to expand partnership on Afghanistan with Iran providing India critical connectivity route to the landlocked country. India needs to launch a dialogue with regional players to Afghanistan's West and North to stabilise Afghanistan. The Chinese efforts to include Afghanistan in BRI project must push Delhi to expedite connectivity initiatives like INSTC. Stability in Afghanistan is as important as Iran for Delhi's outreach to Eurasia. An India-led regional conference on Afghanistan may be considered simultaneously with robust counter terror partnership within SCO and between Delhi and Central Asian countries particularly Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Simultaneously Delhi needs to strengthen government in Kabul.
The Heart of Asia and other Dialogue processes in both limited and wider formats seem to yield little result as far as reconciliation is concerned. Neither military approach alone nor dialogue alone seems to answer to Afghanistan's woes. The infighting in ruling establishment in Kabul is also not helping the cause.
The last week's attacks by Taliban appear to be answer to months of US strikes against the group, according to experts on the subject. The Taliban is out to prove to USA and its allies that it is a weakened force. Taliban's recent attacks come in the backdrop of Trump's expansion of the US air campaign. Trump has announced that he was not prepared to talk to the group and pledged to "finish what we have to finish." But the US President must walk the talk.
The attacks in Kabul represent a shift in tactics for the Taliban. The group hopes to reimpose its version of Shariah law on the country and appears to have been playing a long game — waiting for foreign forces to withdraw from Afghanistan. The situation has been further made complex with competition between Taliban and ISIS on the territory of Afghanistan.
Putting boots on the ground was never considered either in Afghanistan or elsewhere by Delhi irrespective of the government in power. Yet for India having strategic approach towards Afghanistan is as critical as its development initiatives. Both the ISIS and Taliban are equally scary for India. But it would be imprudent to conclude that terror groups will have final say in Afghanistan as History bears testimony to the fact controlling Kabul has not been easy even for local residents.