Source: Wells Fargo Securities, Bloomberg
MSN/CNBC: An under-the-radar way to measure economic growth in China is painting a bleak picture
China's true pace of economic growth is always hard to decipher, but the country's lagging diesel demand could be a sign that the world's second-largest economy is in a much more dire state than official numbers indicate.
Diesel demand in China fell 14% and 19% in March and April, respectively, reaching levels not seen in a decade, according to data compiled by Wells Fargo. Monthly demand has also been falling every month since December 2017, the data shows.
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WNU Editor: China's energy use (gas, diesel, oil, electricity) are one of the metrics that I use to try and understand the state of China's economy. I also use my contacts and friends in China who tell me what is the unofficial data on the Chinese economy. Bottom line .... since the start of this trade war foreign investment has dried up, new projects are on hold, people are being laid off, and servicing municipal and provincial debt levels are becoming a growing concern for Beijing. For the first time in over 35 years there is now a real fear in China that they may soon be facing the prospect of zero and/or minimal growth in the economy. So yes .... the above diesel stats are accurate. Merchandise and goods are not being moved in China, hence the low diesel consumption rates. This is also one of the reasons why oil prices have not exploded with Iran sanctions, the collapse of Venezuelan oil production, and the Libyan civil war. Chinese oil demand has stabilized and in some cases decreased.
Just a heads up. I have a few more posts on China later today. They will be on Huawei. Rare earths. And Beijing telling the Chinese people to prepare for war.